Lockdowns
- Thread starter Richgrsc
- Start date
The author makes some very noteworthy points.
If you missed this the first time around...take the time to listen.
It has gone viral all over the internet... for good reason and is worth your time.
Perhaps the most informative, factual, no BS information you will hear on the true threat...or absence of threat... of the Covid-19 virus.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bkv...ewpEWiK0Tde1_uW3fmwXBCBnt_wtSI1-bn1Zqvw0fjmfE
If you missed this the first time around...take the time to listen.
It has gone viral all over the internet... for good reason and is worth your time.
Perhaps the most informative, factual, no BS information you will hear on the true threat...or absence of threat... of the Covid-19 virus.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bkv...ewpEWiK0Tde1_uW3fmwXBCBnt_wtSI1-bn1Zqvw0fjmfE
The current US guidelines on reopening the economy have a gating requirement(minimum criteria for a state). The requirement is "Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period
OR
Downward trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (flat or increasing volume of tests)"
The current MO daily case statistics are:
View attachment MO Cases.docx
The Missouri cases have been decreasing since Apr 7
The current STL region case statistics are:
View attachment STL Cases.docx
Clearly the STL region cases have been decreasing since Apr 6 and to a greater extent than MO statewide. That would be 22 days of a trajectory decrease.
Current hospitalizations in STL area:
701 people remain hospitalized, 114 of those on ventilators. Those numbers are from STL task force-affiliated hospitals, including BJC, SSM, Mercy and St. Luke's.
St. Louis County exectutive Page has left the lockdown as indefinite, even in the presence of Missouri reopening the state. This is contra the US guidelines.
Clearly, this has become a totally political issue.
OR
Downward trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (flat or increasing volume of tests)"
The current MO daily case statistics are:
View attachment MO Cases.docx
The Missouri cases have been decreasing since Apr 7
The current STL region case statistics are:
View attachment STL Cases.docx
Clearly the STL region cases have been decreasing since Apr 6 and to a greater extent than MO statewide. That would be 22 days of a trajectory decrease.
Current hospitalizations in STL area:
701 people remain hospitalized, 114 of those on ventilators. Those numbers are from STL task force-affiliated hospitals, including BJC, SSM, Mercy and St. Luke's.
St. Louis County exectutive Page has left the lockdown as indefinite, even in the presence of Missouri reopening the state. This is contra the US guidelines.
Clearly, this has become a totally political issue.
I found the WSJ Opinion piece online so it was much easier to read. Actually read it twice. As far as opinion pieces go, this one was quite measured in its approach.
I agree that the virus was not the 'black swan.' Most scientist agree that a new pandemic was inevitable if not predictable. I also agree that the 'infection fatality rate' would be a great number to have. The problem is that we don't have adequate testing to get an accurate 'infection fatality rate.' Unless and until we put testing in place on a vastly larger scale, we may never know.
I do take issue with the section on empty hospital beds and unused ventilators. All projection models are based on certain assumptions. The initial models that called for exponentially increasing bed and ventilator capacity were based on zero mitigation. The 'social distancing' (which is anything but social) guidelines and 'stay at home' orders are precisely what has allowed the beds and ventilators to remain unused.
I also looked at the MO Cases doc and the STL Cases doc. The latter shows more new cases on Apr 24 than Apr 8. The former also shows more new cases on Apr 24 than on Apr 8. To my mind, a 'downward trajectory' is one where everyday brings fewer cases than the day before. A three-day moving average may also be useful.
As for me... yes it would be great to get on with life as we knew it. I wear a mask when I go out in public for necessities, not because of fear. I wear a mask as my duty to public health. I wrote on my mask with a sharpie, "Not Scared, Being Polite." I was in France and Spain in early March. I wear a mask because it is possible that I was an 'asymptomatic' carrier. I have not had an 'in person' visit with my parents or five of my siblings or their families since returning. It is also possible that I am currently 'asymptomatic' having contracted the virus here in town after my return. I wear a mask because I would prefer not to be the modern Typhoid Mary of StL county. Unless and until we put testing in place on a vastly larger scale, I may never know.
Yes, it is disappointing that this has become a political issue instead of a public health issue. Yes, the shutdown is crushing small businesses. I don't know where we find the correct balance and I'm glad I don't have to make those decisions. Sarcasm Alert: "So glad that Ruth's Chris, Shake Shack, and the Lakers got some tax dollar bailout money so they can keep the lights on." There should be just as much outrage about publicly traded companies getting tax money bailouts as there is about reopening.
In the meantime, been spending plenty of time in my garage. Got my donor Mustang engine pulled yesterday, probably start stripping it down today. Need to find in engine shop that qualifies as an 'Essential Business.'
Stay safe everyone.
Casey
I agree that the virus was not the 'black swan.' Most scientist agree that a new pandemic was inevitable if not predictable. I also agree that the 'infection fatality rate' would be a great number to have. The problem is that we don't have adequate testing to get an accurate 'infection fatality rate.' Unless and until we put testing in place on a vastly larger scale, we may never know.
I do take issue with the section on empty hospital beds and unused ventilators. All projection models are based on certain assumptions. The initial models that called for exponentially increasing bed and ventilator capacity were based on zero mitigation. The 'social distancing' (which is anything but social) guidelines and 'stay at home' orders are precisely what has allowed the beds and ventilators to remain unused.
I also looked at the MO Cases doc and the STL Cases doc. The latter shows more new cases on Apr 24 than Apr 8. The former also shows more new cases on Apr 24 than on Apr 8. To my mind, a 'downward trajectory' is one where everyday brings fewer cases than the day before. A three-day moving average may also be useful.
As for me... yes it would be great to get on with life as we knew it. I wear a mask when I go out in public for necessities, not because of fear. I wear a mask as my duty to public health. I wrote on my mask with a sharpie, "Not Scared, Being Polite." I was in France and Spain in early March. I wear a mask because it is possible that I was an 'asymptomatic' carrier. I have not had an 'in person' visit with my parents or five of my siblings or their families since returning. It is also possible that I am currently 'asymptomatic' having contracted the virus here in town after my return. I wear a mask because I would prefer not to be the modern Typhoid Mary of StL county. Unless and until we put testing in place on a vastly larger scale, I may never know.
Yes, it is disappointing that this has become a political issue instead of a public health issue. Yes, the shutdown is crushing small businesses. I don't know where we find the correct balance and I'm glad I don't have to make those decisions. Sarcasm Alert: "So glad that Ruth's Chris, Shake Shack, and the Lakers got some tax dollar bailout money so they can keep the lights on." There should be just as much outrage about publicly traded companies getting tax money bailouts as there is about reopening.
In the meantime, been spending plenty of time in my garage. Got my donor Mustang engine pulled yesterday, probably start stripping it down today. Need to find in engine shop that qualifies as an 'Essential Business.'
Stay safe everyone.
Casey
Kerry, I watched that video and thought it was good information. Tried to share it with a friend. YouTube has removed it for violating their community guidelines. Can't imaging what they violated. This is crazy. Makes you wonder what is really going on.
Tony...the original video was censored and removed....then posted again...only to be censored and removed a second time.
Someone at YouTube is afraid of this rational information becoming public...
...But there are segments of the original that are still available:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wyj...zjd_JbedcgIpJeGlat61-cMmLtQzD6iVZAN2geBRDWAZI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hV8QtgDHvgw
This is a clear case of continuing YouTube censorship.
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And more support for getting back to work...
https://billwhittle.com/science-mak...Nzh_vtwdLn3wwh1JmzHAUydl1K3GdL1w3qbo2LQcBgDgs
https://billwhittle.com/science-mak...Nzh_vtwdLn3wwh1JmzHAUydl1K3GdL1w3qbo2LQcBgDgs
And now the plot thickens...
YouTube is being called out for censorship for pulling the original videos.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/mike-...opDA66cnWEU50JwPSidIb3z9CPzwFPZ3811vykDMtB3ck
YouTube is being called out for censorship for pulling the original videos.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/mike-...opDA66cnWEU50JwPSidIb3z9CPzwFPZ3811vykDMtB3ck
And the additional information becoming available today is both disturbing and depressing...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFP...jH7C9dWC7clVI27vxnfYUEGXQ48dhiU6kpezMFvy55xE4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFP...jH7C9dWC7clVI27vxnfYUEGXQ48dhiU6kpezMFvy55xE4