Wanted - Good source for Weather Forecast

PaulProe

PaulProe

TREASURER & Web Administrator, Member # 019
GCC Member
Location (City)
Manchester
First Name
Paul
Last Name
Proefrock
We cancelled Snake and Eggs in anticipation of severe weather. Weekend turned out to be almost idyllic.

I used to comment "I wish I could get a job where if I was 50% right, I'd be considered good" The current bunch of local forecasters, weather.com, intellicast.com and accuweather.com can't even get to the 50% level.

Anyone got a good source of reliable forecasting.

Paul

Oh, and today: 30% chance of thunderstorms. What about the word "Severe" I measured 58 MPH winds at my house today at lunchtime. just a tad beyond normal thunderstorm.
 
I hear ya. My daughter has one of those "magic 8 balls"...completely random answers to any question. Maybe it can be adapted to predict weather?

The gust front come through Timberlake/40 around 11:40a and saw 2 semis jack-knife as a result of it. The view of the highway is usually not that exciting, but there's a first for everything.:eek:
 
Today's weathermen are just slightly (barely) more skilled than me looking out the window.

For the best forecast - go with Glenn Beck - the sky is falling - REALLY.:D
 
Get yourself a Farmers Almanac, and study up on old timer weather predictions. "Red sky at night, sailors delight; red sky in the morning, sailor take warning" Those are just as accurate as any weather man.
 
Well, then, at my house it was a red sky tonight at sunset. :D The most accurate I have EVER seen is the Scout Weather Rock. If it's wet, it's raining. If it's white, it's snowing. :D
I attempt to predict weather by just looking at the radar, but even that is really wrong sometimes.
 
Good luck Paul; I've been watching the weather for years and have yet to find a source that is reliable more than 24 hrs. out. I currently use WSI (a Weather Channel co.) that is primarily for aviation. It was supplied by American Air Lines and is by subscription only. I have to laugh when I see 5 to 10 day forecast; reliabilty doesn't exist. Weather forcasting is still a very inexact science.
 
Randy,

With all the resources that are available, what I do is I look at them all, look at the radar, and make my own prediction. Pat is starting to believe that I know what I'm talking about as I can tell her what will hit and what will miss with very good results.
The storm that was reported to be over O'fallon the other night....I never got a drop of rain.
I think I missed my calling.

Skip
 
Maybe you should start a weather blog Skip :D That's pretty much what I do, but I tell you, with the way the Low's and High's along with this Omega block has been positioned, it has been hard to predict where the storm is headed. Today's stuff is looking to stay South, but a little raise in the trough will mess that up. How'd that sound? :D :p
 
I deal with weather every day I work in the aviation business. Here is just one example why they will never predict the weather. BTW the FAA does not even try to predict past the 24 hr mark as they know it is hopeless.

Last Thursday I had a trip from Washington Dulles to Nantucket. The weather had been forecast to be below minimums all morning which is 200' ceiling and 1800' visibility. The weather broke the forecast and was up to 600' and 3 miles visibility. After a couple of hours of the weather beating the forecast the FAA amended it. We departed and 30 minutes from Nantucket it went down to 200' scattered which means a low layer is starting to form. Upon arrival I could see the entire island except for the airport which had a thin layer covering it. We shot the ILS approach which took about 5 minutes. In that 5 minutes the entire island covered over with clouds. At 8 miles north of the airport we went into the clouds and never saw the ground again until 300' above the runway.

I have been flying professionally for 23 years and am still amazed by how unpredictible the weather is. The 3 times I have flown into extreme turbulence the weather was not really that bad. You just fly into a cloud expecting to get bounced around a little bit and next thing you know your head gets smashed into the ceiling (yes even with a seatbelt on you can get hurt). I never saw it coming. Of course the mechanics get pissed because they have to tear into the wing to see if you bent anything. I flew with a guy that said a friend of his would wear a boxing style bite guard when he flew through bad weather to keep from biting his toungue. Not a bad idea! As I recall I never hurt my head when flying military aircraft as we always wore helmets.

When you look at the amount of information that goes into the computer model to make a weather prediction it is amazing they are as good as they are. They look at areas of pressure, pressure gradients, frontal boundaries, temperature, temp gradients, dewpoint. surface winds, winds aloft at multiple altitudes, jetstream, solar energy, humidity, water sources, terrain and probably others that I am unaware of. Then the forecaster uses local knowledge to interpret the data that is kicked out of the model to come up with their best SWAG. And it will always be a SWAG as all the data input into the model is constantly changing.
 
I suspect the mouthguard wasn't to keep from biting his tongue, but to prevent against a concussion. Same idea behind a football player wearing one. I've seen/heard of more concussions from someone's teeth coming together hard. Back to the subject - I have found Dave Murry on Fox 2 to be the most accurate out of the local guys, but he was completely wrong on the snow storm of the century a couple months back. Sometimes, I really wonder, why have a weather man. Especially with all the online tools available to anyone, look at the radar, and predict your own weather. See how often you are right compared to the tv guys.
 
I guess the good thing about the weather is it always gives us something to talk about! :D
 
Paul: reference you job that requires 50% accuracy...try pro baseball....250-.300 and you get millions a year.
I am with Tim on the rock...works everytime.
I can't predict or change the weather so I don't pay much attention to it.
We do have a weather alert radio...it is annoying as hell at 3 in the morning...however it is fairly accurate as far as warning about high winds, tornados, etc.
I sleep well in the recliner in the basement in front of the tube...usually no pic when stormy tho.
Bad weather is a lot like sex....you never know how much you will get and how long it will last.
 
Purple Venom said:
Well, then, at my house it was a red sky tonight at sunset. :D The most accurate I have EVER seen is the Scout Weather Rock. If it's wet, it's raining. If it's white, it's snowing. :D
I attempt to predict weather by just looking at the radar, but even that is really wrong sometimes.
Click to expand...

You had a red sky at sunset last night, a beautiful day today. Old weather sayings; 1, weatherman; 0.
 
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